Nov 28, 2015
The days of the dollar's big drag on U.S. exporters and manufacturers may finally be over, Bessemer Trust's Rebecca Patterson said Tuesday.
To be sure, Bessemer is still positioned for continued dollar strength ahead of an anticipated interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. But Bessemer's chief investment officer said the odds of an "extraordinary" runup in the dollar in 2014 and early 2015 — 23 percent in nine months on a trade-weighted basis — are unlikely.
"I do not think that's happening again. So if the dollar goes 3, 5 percent in the next 12 months on a trade-weighted basis, a more slow pace, yeah, it's still a headwind for exporters and manufacturers, but that's already discounted in consensus views for the U.S. economy," Patterson told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
That may be good news for U.S. manufacturers and exporters in the year ahead, she said.
Patterson noted that the greenback is trading around historic averages, and from here, further dollar strength may come more slowly.
Traders have mostly priced in the prospect of diverging monetary policy, Patterson said. Much of the world is expected to keep rates low or ease them further, while U.S. central bankers are aiming to raise rates, perhaps as soon as December.Higher rates in the United States would presumably cause investors to pile into U.S. bonds, which strengthens the dollar. A stronger dollar makes U.S. goods more expensive in foreign markets.
Patterson said she ultimately expects central banks around the world to follow the Fed's lead and guide rates higher, as they have in the past.
"For Europe to be hiking in year and a half, two years from now wouldn't surprise me in least," she said.
On Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he did not know when British interest rates should start to rise.
Patterson, however, said she believed the U.K. would follow the Fed and hike next year.
Source: CNBC